Holistic Athlete Weekly Newsletter

The Planning Fallacy

The planning fallacy is a cognitive bias where people tend to underestimate the time, costs, and risks involved in future tasks while overestimating the benefits. This often leads to overly optimistic projections and under-preparedness, causing projects to take longer or cost more than initially expected. Recognizing this bias can help improve planning and decision-making by encouraging more realistic estimates and contingency considerations.

A common reason people take longer to complete tasks than they originally plan is the distraction of phones and technology. If a student believes they have 45 minutes of studying to do, but they check their phone for 5 minutes every 9 minutes, they have doubled the amount of allotted time they expected to need. In that instance, they either take twice as long to complete the task, or get half the amount of work done they anticipated.